When Apple opened pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, many expected the usual frenzy: sold-out configurations, shipping dates slipping into November, and a mad dash for the most desirable colors. But according to well-known analyst Jeff Pu, the reality is far more subdued. Pu has been meticulously tracking wait times across various configurations of both models, and his conclusion is blunt: pre-order demand is “lukewarm.”
The data paints a picture of a launch that lacks the typical urgency. For the most popular storage tiers—256GB and 512GB—wait times are hovering around 3 to 4 weeks for most color options. That might sound like a lot, but in the context of a new iPhone launch, it’s actually a sign that supply is keeping pace with demand. In previous years, those same configurations would often show 6 to 8 week delays within hours of pre-orders going live. The fact that Apple is only quoting a few weeks suggests that either production has ramped up significantly, or consumer interest has cooled.
What’s more telling is the availability of the higher-end models. The 1TB and 2TB configurations, which carry premium price tags, are available immediately if you opt for the Silver color. That means you could order a top-of-the-line iPhone 18 Pro Max today and have it delivered within days, not weeks. For Black and Glacier models, wait times stretch to 1–2 weeks, while the Burgundy version pushes to 3–4 weeks. This immediate availability of expensive models is unusual for a new iPhone, and it reinforces the idea that demand is not outpacing supply.
The Burgundy Phenomenon: A Clear Favorite
One of the few bright spots in Pu’s data is the new Burgundy color. Across all storage tiers, Burgundy consistently shows longer wait times than any other finish. For the 256GB and 512GB models, Burgundy is part of the group with 3–4 week delays. For the 1TB and 2TB models, Burgundy is the only color that requires a 3–4 week wait, while Silver is instant and Black and Glacier are 1–2 weeks. This makes it abundantly clear that Burgundy is the runaway favorite among early adopters.
Why is Burgundy so popular? It’s a fresh addition to the lineup, offering a deep, rich tone that stands out from the usual blacks, silvers, and golds. Apple has a history of introducing colors that become instant classics—think Midnight Green on the iPhone 11 Pro or Sierra Blue on the iPhone 13 Pro. Burgundy appears to be following that trend, at least among the small segment of consumers who pre-order. However, the fact that even the most popular color isn’t seeing months-long delays is a sign that overall demand is muted.
Silver: The Unwanted Option
On the flip side, Silver appears to be the least popular choice. For the 1TB and 2TB models, Silver is available immediately, meaning there’s ample stock sitting in warehouses. Even for the 256GB and 512GB models, Silver is lumped into the 3–4 week window, but that’s likely due to overall production allocation rather than specific demand. It’s not that Silver is a bad color—it’s classic and clean—but it seems to lack the excitement of Burgundy or the stealthy appeal of Black. For buyers who prioritize getting their phone quickly, Silver is the safest bet.
What Do These Wait Times Actually Mean?
Wait times are a proxy for demand, but they’re also influenced by supply. Apple has been investing heavily in its supply chain, and the iPhone 18 Pro models are reportedly easier to manufacture than some previous generations. That could explain why even the most popular configurations aren’t seeing extended delays. However, Pu’s analysis suggests that demand itself is weaker than expected. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are iterative updates—faster chips, better cameras, slightly refined designs—but they don’t offer a revolutionary new feature that would compel millions to upgrade immediately.
Another factor is the broader economic environment. Inflation, rising interest rates, and a cautious consumer mindset may be dampening enthusiasm for a $1,000+ smartphone. Many potential buyers might be holding onto their iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 15 Pro for another year, especially since those devices still perform well and support the latest iOS features. The lukewarm pre-order data could be an early warning sign that Apple needs to do more to incentivize upgrades.
Comparing to Previous Launches
To put Pu’s findings in context, let’s look back at recent iPhone launches. When the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max launched, wait times for the 256GB model quickly stretched to 6–8 weeks, and the Natural Titanium color was nearly impossible to find. The iPhone 14 Pro saw similar delays, with the Deep Purple color causing a frenzy. Even the iPhone 13 Pro, which launched during a chip shortage, had extended wait times for most configurations. By contrast, the iPhone 18 Pro’s 3–4 week waits are notably shorter. This suggests that either Apple has dramatically improved its production efficiency, or demand has fallen off.
It’s worth noting that pre-order data only captures the most eager buyers—the ones who stay up until midnight to place an order. The broader market might behave differently once the phones hit retail stores and carriers offer promotions. But historically, pre-order wait times are a reliable indicator of overall launch momentum. If they’re lukewarm now, it’s unlikely that demand will suddenly spike in the coming weeks.
What This Means for Apple
For Apple, lukewarm pre-orders are not necessarily a disaster. The company has a massive installed base of iPhone users, and many of them upgrade on a two- or three-year cycle. The iPhone 18 Pro might not set records, but it will still sell tens of millions of units. However, investors and analysts pay close attention to these early signals. If demand is softer than expected, Apple might need to adjust its production plans or ramp up marketing efforts. It could also signal that the rumored iPhone 19 Pro, expected to feature a major redesign, is the one consumers are waiting for.
Pu’s analysis is based on wait times from Apple’s online store, which is just one channel. Carrier pre-orders and third-party retailers might show different patterns. But as a veteran analyst with a strong track record, Pu’s insights carry weight. His “lukewarm” assessment is likely to be echoed by other analysts in the coming days.
The Role of the Burgundy Color
If there’s one takeaway from the data, it’s that color matters. The Burgundy finish is driving the longest wait times, and it’s the only color that consistently requires a multi-week wait across all storage tiers. This suggests that Apple’s strategy of introducing a new, trendy color is still effective at generating interest. However, it’s not enough to lift the entire launch. The fact that Silver models are readily available indicates that most buyers are opting for either Burgundy or Black, leaving Silver behind.
For consumers who are on the fence, this might be good news. If you’re not picky about color, you can get an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max almost immediately. That’s a stark contrast to previous years, when waiting a month or more was the norm. It also means that if you want a Burgundy model, you might want to order sooner rather than later, as that color could become harder to find.
Should You Upgrade?
The lukewarm pre-order data doesn’t necessarily mean the iPhone 18 Pro is a bad phone. In fact, early reviews suggest it’s a solid upgrade, with a faster A18 Pro chip, improved cameras, and better battery life. But if you’re using an iPhone 15 Pro or iPhone 16 Pro, the improvements might not be compelling enough to justify the cost. The iPhone 18 Pro is a refinement, not a revolution. For those with older devices—iPhone 12 or iPhone 13—the upgrade will feel more substantial.
Ultimately, the decision comes down to what you value. If you want the latest and greatest, the iPhone 18 Pro won’t disappoint. But if you’re looking for a reason to upgrade, you might not find one that’s strong enough. The lukewarm pre-orders suggest that many consumers feel the same way.
What’s Next for Apple?
Apple is likely to monitor these early numbers closely. If demand remains soft, the company could introduce promotions, trade-in deals, or carrier subsidies to stimulate sales. It’s also possible that the upcoming holiday season will give the iPhone 18 Pro a boost. But for now, the pre-order data is a clear signal that the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are not generating the same excitement as their predecessors. Whether that changes in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
In the meantime, if you’re in the market for a new iPhone, you have options. You can grab a Silver 1TB model today, or wait a few weeks for a Burgundy one. Either way, you won’t have to wait long—and that’s a rare thing for a new iPhone launch.
